According to the Goldman Sachs analysis published on August 11, 2025, what do the economists forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation by December 2025 as a result of President Trump’s tariffs?

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According to the Goldman Sachs analysis published on August 11, 2025, what do the economists forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation by December 2025 as a result of President Trump’s tariffs?

Accepted Answer

In their August 11, 2025 research note, Goldman Sachs economists—including Jan Hatzius and Elsie Peng—project that core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will accelerate from 2.8% in June to 3.2% year-over-year by December 2025. They attribute this 0.4 percentage-point rise to full pass-through of the Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff on all imports and targeted duties on specific product and country categories, as businesses exhaust pre-tariff inventories and pass costs onto consumers (, ).

According to the Goldman Sachs analysis published on August 11, 2025, what do the economists forecast for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation by December 2025 as a result of President Trump’s tariffs?

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