Polls show Mamdani leading at 45%. How many NYC voters actually decide the mayor?

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NYC has 5.6 million registered voters, but turnout determines the winner. In 2021's mayoral general election, just 1.1 million voted (20% turnout). In 2025, early voting saw 380,000 voters by October 20, suggesting turnout could hit 1.8-2.2 million (32-40%)—driven by polarization and celebrity candidates. But that still means 3.4 million registered voters don't participate. Low turnout favors organized campaigns with strong ground games: Mamdani's NYC-DSA volunteers knocked 500,000 doors; Cuomo relied on TV ads and endorsements. The math: if 2 million vote and Mamdani gets 45%, he wins with 900,000 votes—just 16% of registered voters, 6% of all NYC adults. Democratic legitimacy rests on a narrow base, which opponents will use to challenge his mandate for radical change.

Polls show Mamdani leading at 45%. How many NYC voters actually decide the mayor?

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