📊Trump approval crashes to 37% as independents abandon president over broken promises
Elections
Policy Analysis
President Trump's job approval rating fell to 37% in late July 2025, marking the lowest point of his second term according to Gallup polling released July 24. The decline stems from independent voters souring on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed July 4, which cut healthcare and nutrition programs to fund tax cuts. Trump's second-quarter average of 40% falls well below the 59% typical for presidents at this stage.
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Key Takeaways
- <ul><li><strong>Independent voter abandonment signals electoral catastrophe when swing constituencies flee faster than historical precedent</strong>: Fifteen-point approval collapse among independents since inauguration exceeds Nixon during Watergate
- predicting massive Republican losses in 2026 midterms. These swing voters decide election outcomes
- making their departure from Trump a political death sentence for congressional allies.</li><li><strong>Tax cuts for billionaires funded by food stamp cuts creates concrete trade-off that voters understand immediately</strong>: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's optics poisoned Trump popularity when families lost nutrition assistance while wealthy donors received massive tax breaks. Reagan's similar policies during the 1980s created lasting electoral damage when welfare cuts became associated with Republican priorities.</li><li><strong>Sub-40% approval historically predicts midterm massacres that flip congressional control to opposition parties</strong>: Presidents below 40% approval lose average of 50+ House seats during midterm elections
- based on patterns from Truman through Obama. Trump's 37% rating suggests Republican congressional majorities face extinction in 2026
- fundamentally altering governance dynamics.</li><li><strong>Second-quarter polling reveals policy consequences that campaign promises cannot overcome through messaging</strong>: Trump's 40% second-quarter average falls 19 points below typical presidential approval at this stage
- indicating structural rather than temporary political weakness. Voter experience with actual Trump policies overrides campaign rhetoric when governing record contradicts electoral promises made during 2024 campaign.</li></ul>
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Why This Matters
Independent voters drive 15-point approval collapse since inauguration
The swing voters who decide elections have abandoned Trump faster than any president since Nixon during Watergate.
Tax cuts for billionaires funded by food stamp cuts poison popularity
Trading nutrition assistance for corporate tax breaks makes concrete the choice between feeding kids or enriching donors.
Sub-40% approval historically predicts midterm massacres
Presidents below 40% approval typically lose 50+ House seats, potentially flipping control to Democrats in 2026.
Register voters now while Trump's weakness creates opportunities
Low presidential approval opens competitive races everywhere—check registration at vote.gov before state deadlines.
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Detailed Content
1
Categorize these factors in Trump's approval collapse.
Categorize
Elections
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Match each megabill provision to its political impact.
Matching
Public Policy
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What is Trump's job approval rating in late July 2025 according to Gallup?
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Government
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What did the One Big Beautiful Bill Act do?
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Public Policy
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How does Trump's 40% second-quarter average compare to other presidents?
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What percentage of Americans believe the megabill will hurt the economy?
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Tax & Budget
8
Which president had similar sub-majority approval in their second quarter?
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9
What historical pattern does sub-40% presidential approval predict for midterms?
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Civic Action
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How can citizens use Trump's low approval to push policy changes?
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Why do presidents typically lose House seats when approval drops below 40%?
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Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, 2025.
True/False
Elections
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Republicans maintain 89% approval of Trump despite his low overall numbers.
True/False
Elections
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Only 17% of Americans think Trump's megabill will help their families.
True/False
Elections