ICE arrests drop 12% after Minneapolis killings and Bovino removal

ICE weekly arrests fell from an average of 8,347 in the five weeks before THTom Homan's 🦆Minnesota drawdown announcement (January 1–February 3, 2026) to 7,369 weekly in the five weeks after (February 4–March 10, 2026). This 12% decline was documented by AP analysis of ICE internal data released under FOIA request. The decline was largest in detentions without criminal records—these fell 21% January through March 2026. Detentions involving people with pending criminal charges fell 5%; detentions of people with prior convictions fell 4%. The data shows enforcement shifted toward criminals and away from non-criminal removals.

GBGregory Bovino served as Border Patrol Commander and oversaw ICE enforcement operations in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region from 2024 to January 2026. Bovino implemented a turn-and-burn strategy emphasizing high-visibility enforcement operations at restaurants, bus stops, Home Depot parking lots, and other public places where ICE could make large numbers of arrests quickly and attract media attention. This strategy targeted all removable aliens regardless of criminal history and operated on the principle that high-volume arrests and deportations would deter undocumented immigration.

Two U.S. citizens died during ICE enforcement operations in late January 2026 in Minneapolis: RGRenee Good and APAlex Pretti. Both were lawful permanent residents or citizens mistaken for removable aliens during enforcement sweeps. ICE initially refused to release details about how the deaths occurred, citing operational sensitivity. Congressional oversight requests forced disclosure that ICE agents used force during the detentions. Public outcry and media coverage of the deaths created immediate pressure on the Trump administration to change enforcement tactics.

THTom Homan, Trump's border czar, announced a 🦆Minnesota drawdown on February 4, 2026—less than two weeks after the Minneapolis deaths. Homan stated that ICE would shift focus toward serious criminals and people with final deportation orders. He removed Bovino from his position and indicated that the turn-and-burn strategy had created public relations problems that undermined the administration's immigration enforcement goals. The announcement signaled that aggressive enforcement tactics were being reconsidered at the highest levels of ICE.

ICE arrests had peaked at nearly 40,000 total arrests in December 2025, the highest monthly total since the Trump administration took office. This peak reflected intense enforcement activity and high detention capacity. The 12% drop in February–March 2026 represented a measurable pullback from this peak, driven by leadership change and tactical shift toward criminal-focused enforcement. The data demonstrated that ICE has significant discretion over enforcement levels and can reduce arrests substantially by changing operational priorities.

Federal law authorizes ICE to detain any alien removable from the United States. This includes people who overstayed visas, entered without inspection, or violated other immigration statutes, regardless of whether they have committed any crime. ICE can also detain people with pending criminal charges or prior convictions. The shift from 12% non-criminal detentions to 5% non-criminal detentions showed that legal authority to detain someone and operational choice to detain someone are different. Leadership can prioritize one category over another.

Congressional oversight of ICE is limited. The House and Senate Judiciary Committees can request information about ICE operations, but there is no statutory requirement that ICE submit to regular reporting on enforcement patterns or maintain transparency about targeting strategies. The AP FOIA request that revealed the 12% arrest decline was the primary source of public information about the enforcement shift. Without FOIA access or congressional subpoena, the public would not know that enforcement had changed.

The Minneapolis deaths and enforcement decline raised questions about ICE operational procedures and civilian impact. Civil rights organizations filed complaints with the DHS Office for Civil Rights arguing that ICE turn-and-burn enforcement created unsafe conditions for both enforcement officers and civilians. Some communities in 🦆Minnesota implemented sanctuary policies restricting local law enforcement cooperation with ICE. The political cost of the aggressive strategy exceeded whatever enforcement benefit it had provided, leading to the strategic pivot toward criminal-focused enforcement.