Israel kills Ali Larijani as Iran retaliates across the Gulf

"Israeli airstrikes on the night of March 16–17, 2026 — Day 18 of the Iran war — killed multiple senior Iranian leaders in a single operation. Those confirmed killed included:\n\n- — head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and de facto leader of Iran since Khamenei's assassination\n- — Larijani's son, killed in the same strike\n- — Larijani's chief of staff, killed in the same strike\n- — commander of the Basij militia, Iran's internal paramilitary and social control force\n- — Iran's intelligence minister, per Israeli claims\n\nThe targeted killings represented one of the most significant blows to Iranian institutional leadership since Khamenei's assassination on February 28, the first day of the war.\n\nLarijani was among the most consequential political figures in the Islamic Republic. He served as parliament speaker from 2008 to 2020 and had been a close adviser to the late Khamenei. He had managed Iran's security architecture and nuclear file negotiations through multiple crises and was widely seen as one of the few remaining senior officials capable of organizing a coherent Iranian strategic response to the war. His death eliminated a key node in Iran's civil-military command structure."

"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large-scale retaliatory strike campaign on March 18, 2026, which it said hit more than 100 military and security targets in Israel and across U.S. military and diplomatic assets in the Middle East. Retaliatory attacks were reported in Israel and in Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. In Israel, Iranian missiles killed two civilians in the city of Ramat Gan.\n\nThe scale of the retaliation widened the war's geographic footprint beyond Iran, Israel, and the United States. Gulf states that had not taken formal positions in the conflict still found U.S.-linked facilities on their territory drawn into the exchange, heightening pressure on those governments to either align more openly with Washington or distance themselves from the war. Kuwait and Bahrain host major U.S. military installations that Iran has long treated as legitimate targets in a regional conflict."

"Israel struck the South Pars natural gas field in the Persian Gulf and nearby refineries on March 18. South Pars is the world's largest natural gas field and is shared with Qatar, which operates its side as the North Field. The Iranian side produces a large share of Iran's natural gas, making it strategically important to both state revenue and domestic energy supply. Qatar expressed alarm at the strike's proximity to shared infrastructure.\n\nThe attack also produced competing narratives about coordination and prior knowledge. Trump said the United States and Qatar were not involved, while Israeli and U.S. accounts cast doubt on who knew about the strike in advance and how closely partners had been informed. The South Pars strike coincided with a public split between the United States and European allies over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump had called on European NATO members to contribute naval forces to a U.S.-led mission to keep the Strait open. European governments publicly declined."

"The cumulative toll of the Iran war through March 18, 2026, included more than 3,100 confirmed deaths in Iran according to independent human rights monitors, including over 1,300 civilians. Thirteen American service members had been killed and more than 200 wounded across seven countries. U.S. Central Command had struck thousands of targets in Iran since February 28, including nuclear sites, missile storage facilities, Revolutionary Guard command centers, and energy infrastructure.\n\nThe U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, presented to the Senate Intelligence Committee by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on March 18, omitted the status of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said on March 18 that the war could not entirely eliminate Iran's nuclear program and that enriched nuclear material remained in locations that had not been struck. Those warnings, along with rising U.S. casualties and allied rejection of Hormuz support, underscored how the conflict was expanding even as its core stated objective remained unresolved."

"Benjamin Netanyahu defended the killings of Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani as part of Israel's effort to break Iran's command structure. Netanyahu said the strikes were intended to weaken the Iranian government and leave it less able to coordinate retaliation. On March 18, less than 24 hours later, Iran launched a coordinated retaliatory campaign it said hit more than 100 military and security targets in Israel and against U.S. assets across the Middle East.\n\nIsrael removed senior decision-makers from Iran's civilian and military leadership. The IRGC still launched missiles and drones across Israel and Gulf states within hours. The immediate consequence was not degraded Iranian capacity but expanded geographic scope of the war."

"Donald Trump publicly distanced Washington from the strike on South Pars on March 19. Trump stated that the United States and Qatar knew nothing about the attack and warned Israel not to repeat it. On the same day, Israeli officials told Reuters that the operation had been coordinated with the United States. The contradiction was direct and immediate.\n\nQatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base and shares the South Pars gas field with Iran. The competing accounts meant either Washington approved a strike on infrastructure linked directly to a U.S. ally and then denied it, or Israel escalated a major military operation without clear U.S. knowledge or control. Neither scenario aligns with public statements about coordinated strategy in the war."

"Keir Starmer, Boris Pistorius, and Kaja Kallas each stated that Europe would not contribute military forces to open the Strait of Hormuz. Starmer said Britain would not be drawn into the wider war. Pistorius said the conflict was not Germany's war. Kallas, the European Union's foreign policy chief, said member states had no appetite to expand maritime operations into Hormuz. Their public statements came as the war was widening into Gulf energy infrastructure with the South Pars strike.\n\nEuropean NATO governments drew a distinction between supporting 📖freedom of navigation and joining a U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran. Trump had called on European members to contribute naval forces. European governments declined."

"Two civilians were killed in Ramat Gan by shrapnel from an intercepted Iranian missile, according to Israeli emergency officials cited by Reuters. At the same time, Iranian attacks or threats reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, places that host major U.S. military facilities and energy infrastructure. The strikes turned countries that had not formally entered the war into places where civilians, soldiers, and oil facilities were suddenly at risk.\n\nFor governments across the Gulf, the expansion changed the calculation of hosting U.S. military bases. Bahrain hosts Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. Kuwait hosts Camp Arifjan. Both came under direct Iranian attack. That expansion transformed hosting U.S. bases from a background security relationship into direct exposure to military operations."