US sets June deadline for Ukraine-Russia peace deal with midterms in view

The United States has given Ukraine and Russia a June 2026 deadline to reach a peace agreement, Zelenskyy disclosed on Feb. 8 after talks in Abu Dhabi. His framing was explicit about the political logic: 'The elections are, for them, definitely more important. Let's not be naïve.' He said the Trump administration's attention would shift to the November 2026 congressional elections around June, creating a closing window for the administration to deliver a deal Trump could claim as a signature foreign policy victory.

The second round of Abu Dhabi talks, held Feb. 5-6, was led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and JKJared Kushner on the American side. Russia elevated its delegation by sending military intelligence chief Admiral Igor Kostyukov, a more capable counterpart than business envoy KDKirill Dmitriev who had previously led Moscow's channel to Witkoff. Ukraine was led by Lt. Gen. KBKyrylo Budanov, Zelenskyy's military intelligence chief. The talks covered ceasefire monitoring mechanisms — how to technically verify a ceasefire once one is announced — though no breakthrough was reached.

Russia's core demand hasn't moved: it insists Ukraine withdraw its forces from the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that remain under Kyiv's control. Ukraine refuses, and Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated: 'We stand where we stand.' The U.S. has proposed turning the contested Donbas territory into a demilitarized 'free economic zone' — a creative compromise that both sides have rejected or treated skeptically. Zelenskyy has also expressed opposition to any bilateral U.S.-Russia agreements that affect Ukraine's interests without Ukraine at the table.

On Feb. 24, Trump told reporters the U.S. and Ukraine were close to an agreement 'where we get our money back over a period of time' — a reference to a minerals and reconstruction investment fund. On Feb. 25, U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators produced a draft agreement establishing a joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund for postwar reconstruction, giving the U.S. preferential access to Ukraine's mineral resources including lithium, titanium, and rare earths. Zelenskyy called it a 'framework' to be finalized during an in-person meeting with Trump on Feb. 28. The draft notably did not include explicit U.S. security guarantees to Ukraine.

Ukraine's negotiating position has shifted substantially under U.S. pressure. Zelenskyy has already agreed to drop Ukraine's NATO membership bid as a condition of the talks, agreed to limits on the size of Ukraine's postwar military, and said he's open to Ukrainian troop withdrawal from portions of Donetsk if the territory becomes a demilitarized zone. Carnegie Endowment analysts called these concessions 'reasonable but painful,' noting that as Ukraine makes concessions Putin continues to make maximalist demands while watching from the sidelines.

The security guarantee question is the unresolved core of any deal. Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., UK, and Russia. Russia violated those assurances in 2014. Ukraine will not accept any new deal without binding commitments from great powers — not just assurances — that prevent Russia from resuming attacks after a ceasefire. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister KSKeir Starmer, have offered to put troops on the ground as peacekeepers. Trump has explicitly declined to commit U.S. troops as a security backstop.

Russia's energy infrastructure attacks continued during the negotiating period. After a prior one-week pause in energy attacks brokered by Trump, Russia resumed strikes after just four days, targeting power grids and nuclear plant output across Ukraine. Zelenskyy noted that Russia launched more than 400 drones and 40 missiles overnight in one Feb. 8 attack. The continued attacks illustrate the fundamental asymmetry: Ukraine needs the deal more than Russia does in the short term, giving Putin leverage to wait for better terms.

On Feb. 25, the Wikipedia record of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations noted that Russia had also presented a '$12 trillion economic proposal' — dubbed the 'Dmitriev package' — offering bilateral economic deals with the U.S. as part of the broader negotiating framework. The figure is largely interpreted by analysts as a maximalist negotiating position rather than a serious economic calculation. Its inclusion reflects Russia's strategy of using economic inducements to the U.S. as leverage — offering Trump access to Russian resources and markets in exchange for a deal that accepts Russian territorial gains.