The Conference Board has published its Consumer Confidence Index monthly since 1967. It surveys about 3,000 households asking about current business conditions, job availability, and expectations for income, jobs, and business conditions six months out. The Index is split into two sub-components: the Present Situation Index (current conditions) and the Expectations Index (future outlook). Economists use the Expectations Index as a leading indicator: when it falls below 80, it has historically predicted a recession within 12 months in all but two post-war instances. February 2026 marked the 13th consecutive month below 80—the longest such streak since the early 2008 financial crisis.