Social Security combined trust funds projected to be exhausted, making benefit cuts unavoidable without reform

The 2025 Social Security Trustees Report projects the theoretically combined OASI and Disability Insurance trust funds will be depleted in 2034, one year earlier than the prior year's estimate. CBO reaches a similar conclusion, estimating combined exhaustion in fiscal year 2034. Upon depletion, Social Security can pay only 81 cents of every dollar owed — an automatic benefit cut of 19% for all 70 million-plus beneficiaries under current law. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that restoring 75-year solvency today would require either a 29% payroll tax increase or a 22% across-the-board benefit cut; waiting until 2034 would push those figures to 34% and 26%, respectively. The passage of the Social Security Fairness Act in late 2024 and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's senior deduction in 2025 both accelerated the exhaustion date.