Democrats overperform 2024 margins by double digits in special elections

By February 2026, Democrats had improved upon their 2024 presidential margins by an average of 11-14 points across special elections held since January 2025, with individual races showing swings as high as 31.8 points. Democrats flipped four state legislative seats in 2026 special elections after flipping seven in 2025, including a Texas state senate seat in a district Trump had won by 17 points. The pattern gave Democrats a historically strong leading indicator heading into November 2026 midterms.