BEA Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate shows 1.4% growth and shutdown dragged 1 point

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate on February 20, 2026, showing real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, with BEA attributing approximately 1.0 percentage point of the slowdown to the federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 through November 12, 2025. Without the shutdown's effect on federal employee compensation and government spending, growth would have approached 2.4%. The estimate was later revised down further to 0.7% in the second estimate, reflecting deeper effects from trade disruptions.