U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio surpasses the post-World War II record of 106%, projected to keep climbing

CBO projects that debt held by the public will surpass 106% of GDP by fiscal year 2030, exceeding the record set just after World War II in 1946. This is a structural milestone: every prior time U.S. debt approached these levels, Congress or economic growth reversed the trajectory. CBO's February 2026 baseline projects debt continuing to climb to 120% of GDP by 2036 and 144% of GDP after 20 years. Net interest payments are projected to be the fastest-growing component of the federal budget, rising from roughly $1 trillion in 2026 toward $1.8 trillion by 2035.