Lancet projects 9.4M deaths from USAID cuts by 2030

The Lancet Global Health published a peer-reviewed study on February 2, 2026, projecting that US and allied foreign aid cuts would cause at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030, including 2.5 million children under five. Researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health analyzed 93 low- and middle-income countries and found development assistance had prevented 91 million deaths between 2002 and 2021. The Center for Global Development separately estimated 500,000 to 1 million deaths may have already occurred in 2025 from the cuts.