Ayatollah Khamenei

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In response to an Israeli airstrike on Iranian military facilities (itself retaliation for Iranian missile strikes on Israeli targets in April 2024), Iran launches over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. The strike demonstrates Iran's growing missile arsenal and capacity for long-range retaliation while raising global alarm about regional escalation spiraling into a wider conflict. The U.S. and European allies mobilize military assets to defend Israel. Both Iran and Israel calibrate their responses to avoid full-scale war. The exchange shows how fragile the balance between deterrence and escalation has become and intensifies pressure on both Washington and Tehran to find negotiating off-ramps.

President Donald Trump announces and launches Operation Epic Fury, a sustained military campaign against Iran following Iranian missile attacks on Israeli territory. The campaign involves U.S. aircraft, including B-52 bombers from Diego Garcia, striking Iranian military targets and bases. Trump describes the operation as major combat operations. The campaign escalates tensions dramatically, with multiple rounds of strikes targeting Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions. By March 2026, the operation has resulted in several American military deaths and injured servicemembers. Critics argue the operation lacks clear objectives and congressional authorization. Democratic senators invoke the War Powers Resolution seeking to halt operations.

In response to the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran launches approximately 22 ballistic missiles at two Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. forces: Al Asad Airbase and Erbil. The strikes do not kill any U.S. service members, though some suffer injuries from concussions. Iran announces the strikes in advance through intermediaries, giving U.S. forces time to take shelter. The measured response appears designed to demonstrate capability and resolve without triggering massive escalation. However, earlier on the same day, Iran accidentally shoots down Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752, killing all 176 aboard. The incident deeply embarrasses Iran and eventually forces Iranian officials to admit the missile strike was unintentional.

In retaliation for the January 3 killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran launches over a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq, including Al Asad and Erbil. The strikes are a show of force and precision—all missiles reach their intended targets, though U.S. defenses and base evacuations prevent significant casualties. Iranian officials frame the attack as a restoration of honor and a proportionate response. Notably, Iran signals in advance through Iraqi and Swiss channels that the strikes are limited and not intended as the start of a wider war. The measured retaliation satisfies domestic demands for a response while leaving room for de-escalation. Both sides understand the dangers of uncontrolled military escalation.