Firms absorb some tariff costs as PPI falls, not "CEOs hide Trump inflation"

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.1% in Aug. 2025, defying a roughly 0.3% consensus forecast and reflecting weaker wholesale pressures rather than broad consumer disinflation.

The PPI trade services component fell 1.7% in Aug. 2025. Machinery and equipment wholesaling prices fell 2.2% in the same month, per BLS industry indexes.

Claims that the U.S. average applied tariff rate hit 17.4% in Sep. 2025, or that tariffs produced $2.7 trillion in revenue over a decade, are unsupported by CRS and Treasury/CBP data; tariff receipts have been in the billions annually, not trillions.

I could not verify the asserted 37% of firms planning workforce reductions from corporate earnings reports or a CNBC survey. That specific 37% figure is unsupported in the public record I reviewed.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut its federal funds rate by 25 basis points on Sep. 17, 2025, moving the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. Markets had priced a high probability of a 25 bp cut before the meeting.