September 10, 2025
Firms absorb some tariff costs as PPI falls, not "CEOs hide Trump inflation"
Businesses sacrifice profits to hide trade war costs from consumers
💰Economy💵Tax & Budget📈Trade
In August 2025, the Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1% while consensus forecasts had expected a 0.3% rise.
BLS data show the PPI trade services component dropped 1.7% and machinery and equipment wholesaling fell 2.2% in August.
Those wholesale declines indicate margin pressure for some dealers. The claim that tariffs produced a 17.4% average rate or $2.7 trillion in decade revenue is unsupported.
I found no reliable survey showing 37% of firms planning workforce cuts.
The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.1% in August 2025, defying a roughly 0.3% consensus forecast and reflecting weaker wholesale pressures rather than broad consumer disinflation.
The PPI trade services component fell 1.7% in August 2025. Machinery and equipment wholesaling prices fell 2.2% in the same month, per BLS industry indexes.
Claims that the U.S. average applied tariff rate hit 17.4% in September 2025, or that tariffs produced $2.7 trillion in revenue over a decade, are unsupported by CRS and Treasury/CBP data; tariff receipts have been in the billions annually, not trillions.
I could not verify the asserted 37% of firms planning workforce reductions from corporate earnings reports or a CNBC survey. That specific 37% figure is unsupported in the public record I reviewed.
The Federal Open Market Committee cut its federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, 2025, moving the target range to 4.00%–4.25%. Markets had priced a high probability of a 25 bp cut before the meeting.
💰Economy💵Tax & Budget📈Trade
People, bills, and sources
What You Can Do
1
understanding
Watch BLS releases
Use the BLS PPI and CPI monthly releases to track wholesale pass-through and margin pressure. Look at the PPI industry tables for machinery and trade services to spot margin compression.
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2
civic action
Monitor FOMC communications
Read the FOMC statement and projections on or after September 17, 2025, to see the Fed's rationale for the rate cut and its guidance.
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3
learning more
Check tariff revenue records
Refer to CRS reports and U.S. Customs/Treasury annual receipts to verify claimed tariff revenues before citing multi-year totals.
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