What history teaches about defending democracy from authoritarianism

Harvard researcher ECErica Chenoweth found that nonviolent civil resistance campaigns succeeded 53% of the time from 1900 to 2006, compared to 26% for violent campaigns. Nonviolent movements were twice as likely to achieve their goals.

The 3.5% rule: authoritarian governments have almost always been forced to yield when mass resistance campaigns mobilized 3.5% of a country's population during peak events. For the United States, that means roughly 11 million people.

From 1966 to 1999, nonviolent civic resistance played a critical role in 50 of 67 transitions from authoritarianism. The strategy has a track record across cultures, continents, and political systems.

The Civil Rights Movement succeeded by combining multiple tactics: NAACP legal challenges won court victories, SCLC direct action created moral crises, and SNCC grassroots organizing built local power. No single approach would have worked alone.

The Birmingham Children's Crusade of 1963 brought thousands of Black children into the streets. Police responded with attack dogs and fire hoses. These images, broadcast nationwide, helped spur passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

In 2025, protests in the United States reached a wider geographic spread than at any other point on record, according to Harvard's Crowd Counting Consortium. Resistance activity has expanded beyond traditional urban centers.

Movements that mix in some armed violence tend to be less successful than those maintaining nonviolent discipline. Governments infiltrate movements specifically to provoke violence, giving regimes justification for crackdowns.

Successful movements typically took decades. Women's suffrage: 1848 to 1920. Labor rights: 1880s through 1930s. Civil rights: 1950s through 1960s. Expecting quick victories leads to demoralization when change takes longer.