Democrats are outrunning 2024 margins by 32 points in special elections
Democrats have averaged a 15-point swing in 15 special elections since January — including 32 points in Texas
🗳️Elections📊Electoral Systems🏛️Government📚Historical Precedent
Democrats outperformed their prior margins by an average of 15 percentage points across roughly 40 special elections held between November 2024 and February 2026. That average is larger than the 10-point swing that preceded Democrats flipping 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
Taylor Rehmet, a machinist union leader, won Texas Senate District 9 on January 31, 2026, capturing 57 percent of the vote. Trump won the same district by 17 points in 2024, making this a 32-point swing toward Democrats—the seat had not elected a Democratic state senator in three decades.
Republican Matt Van Epps won Tennessee's 7th Congressional District in December 2025, but Aftyn Behn held him to 54 percent. Republicans won that same seat by 22 points in 2024. Democrats improved by about 13 points in a district that Cook Political Report rates R+10.
Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia's November 2025 governor's race by 15 percentage points, flipping the governorship from red to blue. She ran explicitly against DOGE federal layoffs and Trump administration tariffs, and her 527,000-vote raw margin was the largest in Virginia gubernatorial history.
In Florida's 2025 state legislative special elections, Democrats consistently outperformed their prior vote shares in districts Trump won. A Democrat took 62 percent of the vote in a Louisiana state House district Trump carried by 13 points, illustrating that the pattern extended well beyond high-profile congressional races.
Democrats flipped 21 percent of GOP-held state legislative seats in 2025 special elections nationally, according to Bolts magazine, which tracked 119 resolved races. That seat-flip rate far exceeds what historical baselines would predict in a normal political environment.
The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index, known as Cook PVI, measures how much more Republican or Democratic a district votes compared to the national average. A district rated R+10 should lean 10 points more Republican than the country overall—so a 13-point Democratic swing effectively neutralizes that structural advantage and puts the race in competitive territory.
Political scientists who study special elections note that no single race is reliably predictive, but patterns across 30 or more races in a short window are strongly correlated with the next general election. The 2017-2018 special election data accurately forecast a Democratic House majority, while 2009-2010 Republican overperformance accurately forecast the Tea Party wave.
Analysts at Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball estimated in early 2026 that if the current special-election environment held, Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by about 3 points in swing districts to capture the House majority—a threshold the existing special-election data suggests is within reach.
🗳️Elections📊Electoral Systems🏛️Government📚Historical Precedent
People, bills, and sources
Taylor Rehmet
Democratic state senator-elect, Texas Senate District 9
Aftyn Behn
Democratic nominee, Tennessee 7th Congressional District special election, December 2025
Abigail Spanberger
Governor of Virginia (elected November 2025)
Shawn Harris
Democratic nominee, Georgia 14th Congressional District special election, March 2026
Amy Walter
Editor-in-chief, Cook Political Report
Larry Sabato
Founder, Sabato's Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics
What you can do
1
research
Check your district Cook PVI score and special election history
Understanding whether you live in a safe, likely, or competitive district helps you gauge how much your vote matters in 2026. Cook PVI scores are publicly available and tell you how your district has historically voted relative to the national average. Districts rated D+5 to R+5 are considered swing seats where special election swings matter most.
Visit cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi and look up your congressional district. If your district is rated R+1 through R+10, it is the kind of seat Democrats are currently targeting based on special election data. If it is R+15 or higher, you are in territory similar to Texas SD-9 before January 2026—which was considered safe until it was not.
2
civic action
Register to vote or confirm your registration ahead of 2026 primaries
Special elections often have very low turnout, which means a motivated minority of voters can produce dramatic results. The same dynamic applies to primaries, where the candidates who make it to November are often decided by a fraction of eligible voters. Registration deadlines vary by state.
Go to vote.gov and check your registration status. Confirm your address is current—moves often knock people off rolls. Check your state primary date: most 2026 congressional primaries run from March through August.
3
civic action
Contact your House representative about DOGE cuts and their district impact
Many of the 2025 special election swings were driven by voter anger over federal layoffs and DOGE cuts. If you live in a district with federal workers or contractors, your representative has a direct stake in this issue. Congressional offices track constituent contacts, and a surge in calls influences how members vote on budget and appropriations bills.
Call 202-224-3121 and ask to be connected to your representative office. Say: I am a constituent from [city]. I am calling about federal layoffs in our district. How many federal workers or contractors in our district have been affected by DOGE cuts? And what is the representative doing to address this? Log the response and share it with local news if relevant.