Bessent warns of $1 trillion refund if Court voids tariffs

Treasury Secretary SBScott Bessent warned on Sept. 7, 2025 on NBC's Meet the Press that delaying a final Supreme Court ruling until mid-2026 could let $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariffs collect—and that refunding half would be 'terrible for the Treasury.'

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a 7-4 en banc decision on Aug. 29, 2025, finding that Trump's global tariffs exceeded the authority granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The majority held IEEPA's power to 'regulate' imports does not authorize tariff-setting.

Judges Cunningham, Lourie, Reyna, and Stark filed a separate concurrence going further, arguing IEEPA authorizes no tariffs at all—not even limited ones. Chief Judge Moore and Judges Taranto, Prost, and Chen dissented, saying IEEPA's broad emergency language covers tariffs.

A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade—Judges GKGary Katzmann, Timothy Reif, and Jane Restani—had already ruled against the tariffs in May 2025, finding Trump lacked unilateral authority to impose them. The Federal Circuit affirmed that ruling.

The Federal Circuit stayed its ruling until Oct. 14, 2025 so the administration could appeal. Tariff collection continued uninterrupted during this window, adding to the potential refund total.

The Supreme Court granted expedited review and heard oral arguments on Nov. 5, 2025

Solicitor General D

John Sauer argued that 'regulate importation' in IEEPA plainly covers tariffs A majority of justices appeared skeptical of the administration's position.

Legal analysts warn that refunds wouldn't be automatic even if the Court rules against Trump. Importers would likely need to file individual protests or separate legal claims to preserve their refund rights, adding a layer of complexity to any unwind.

Bessent told Reuters separately that the Treasury holds $774 billion on hand, enough to cover any possible refunds—but acknowledged the fiscal disruption of such a payout would still be significant.