TradeAgricultureEconomy
November 13, 2025Trump shifts to economic messaging with South American grocery deals after months denying tariff impacts
Administration reverses months of denial, admits tariffs drove up prices it promised wouldn't rise
The White House announced on November 13, 2025, that the Trump administration had reached framework trade agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala. The deals were framed as a direct response to mounting pressure from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who said Trump had not delivered on his central campaign promise to lower grocery prices. The announcement came after months in which White House officials had insisted that tariffs would not raise consumer prices.
The deals called for the four countries to remove or lower barriers to U.S. agricultural exports in exchange for the U.S. reducing or eliminating tariffs on specific imported food products including coffee, bananas, and beef. The White House said framework agreements with the four countries were expected to be finalized within two weeks, though the structural tariffs on broader categories of imports from those countries remained in place.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters on November 13 that there was 'still work to do' on affordability, saying 'as people look at their pocketbooks to go to the grocery store, that there''s still work to do.' This was a notable shift from months of administration messaging that had attributed any remaining price pressures to the prior Biden administration or to factors entirely outside the administration's control.
Hassett, who holds one of the most senior economic policy roles in the White House, had previously defended the administration's tariff strategy as pro-growth and had declined to acknowledge consumer price impacts as a result of the policies. His November 13 comments represented the clearest public admission yet that the administration needed to change course on grocery affordability.
A November 2025 NBC News poll found that about two-thirds of respondents said Trump had not delivered on his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The poll reflected a sustained pattern of voter dissatisfaction with economic performance that was showing up in multiple surveys by mid-November 2025, more than nine months after Trump took office.
The political pressure was bipartisan. Republican members of Congress from swing districts, particularly those facing competitive 2026 midterm races, had been urging the White House privately and in some cases publicly to address grocery prices more aggressively. The South American trade deal announcements were designed in part to give those members something to point to as economic relief.
The September 2025 Consumer Price Index data provided the economic backdrop for the administration's pivot. Coffee prices had spiked 18.9 percent over the prior year, bananas were up 6.9 percent, and beef prices had risen 14.7 percent. Economists linked the increases in coffee and banana prices directly to Trump's tariffs on major producing countries, since the United States does not produce significant quantities of those commodities domestically and relies heavily on imports.
The broader food at home index was 2.7 percent higher in September 2025 than a year earlier, according to BLS data, with meats, poultry, fish and eggs up 5.2 percent and non-alcoholic beverages up 5.3 percent. These numbers made it politically difficult for the administration to continue claiming tariffs were not affecting grocery prices.
Trump signed an executive order on November 14 lifting reciprocal tariffs on coffee, tea, beef, tropical fruits, juices, nuts and spices. This was a direct reversal of tariffs the administration had imposed earlier in 2025 as part of its broader 'reciprocal tariff' framework, which had affected dozens of nations and a wide range of products. The White House described the order as a 'historic' move to lower grocery prices.
The tariff exemptions covered a relatively narrow slice of total grocery spending but targeted products whose prices had risen most visibly. Critics from both parties noted that the broader tariff structure, which economists estimated had cost businesses an additional $1.2 trillion in 2025, remained in place and that the exemptions did not address the underlying price pressures on most consumer goods.
The administration's messaging strategy paired the trade deals with a domestic travel push. Trump increased his schedule of economic speeches at factories, farms, and retail facilities, framing the grocery deals as evidence that his trade policy was beginning to deliver. The White House prepared talking points for Republican members of Congress emphasizing the South American deals as proof of negotiating leverage.
NBC News reported that the administration was racing to reframe its tariff rollbacks as strategic wins rather than concessions to domestic political pressure. Communications staff described the deals as 'phase one' of a broader agricultural trade strategy, even though the tariff exemptions applied to a fraction of the products that had seen the largest price increases.
The structural tension in the administration's position was visible in the November 14 announcements. The reciprocal tariffs on broader imports from Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador, and Guatemala remained in place even as specific agricultural tariffs were lifted. Companies in those countries still faced the baseline reciprocal tariff rates on non-food exports. Fortune reported that the tariff relief applied to a narrow enough slice of trade that economists expected minimal overall price relief at grocery store checkouts.
Consumers' purchasing decisions track dozens of categories, and the exempted products made up a small percentage of total grocery spending. Food industry analysts told reporters that even if coffee and banana prices fell in response to the tariff removal, other categories including processed foods, packaging materials, and produce outside the exempted list would continue to face upward price pressure from the still-intact tariff structure.
The NBC News poll data and the administration's pivot together represent a pattern that has characterized the tariff debate throughout 2025. Early in Trump's second term, administration officials including Hassett and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that any short-term price increases from tariffs would be more than offset by long-term domestic production gains. The ABC News fact-check from November 2025 documented how grocery price inflation was accelerating even as the White House claimed credit for taming inflation broadly.
Economists estimated that companies passed on roughly two-thirds of their increased tariff costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. Trump's tariffs cost businesses an additional $1.2 trillion in 2025, meaning consumers absorbed roughly $592 billion in higher prices. The grocery deal announcements did not address this broader cost-pass-through dynamic.
Timeline
US-China Trade War and the American Farm Crisis
Jan 20, 2025
Government FormationSignificant
Trump takes office after promising to cut grocery prices on day one
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2025, having campaigned on a promise to lower grocery prices immediately upon taking office. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported grocery prices had risen approximately 20% from 2021 to 2024, making food costs a central voter concern. Trump's advisors signaled broad tariffs would be the primary tool for achieving lower prices, a claim economists disputed as likely to raise rather than lower consumer costs.
Sep 11, 2025
Economic EventSignificant
BLS data shows grocery prices rising fastest since 2022 as tariffs bite
Bureau of Labor Statistics data released in September 2025 showed grocery prices rising at the fastest pace since 2022, with coffee up 18.9%, beef up 14.7%, and bananas up 6.9% year over year. Economists attributed a significant portion of the increases to Trump's import tariffs, which were estimated to add 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to the consumer price index. The data directly contradicted White House officials who had repeatedly claimed tariffs would not raise consumer prices.
Nov 1, 2025
Policy ChangeNotable
Republican and Democratic lawmakers press the White House to act on grocery prices
By November 2025, members of Congress from both parties were publicly pressing the Trump administration to deliver on its grocery price promises, with several Republican members in competitive districts warning that food inflation was their top constituent concern ahead of the 2026 midterms. Senate Agriculture Committee members demanded a White House briefing on trade remedies for food costs. Polling data showed grocery costs ranked above immigration and national security as the top economic worry for most Americans.
Nov 13, 2025
International EventSignificant
White House announces trade frameworks with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala
The White House announced on November 13, 2025, framework trade agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala aimed at lowering grocery prices by reducing tariffs on specific food imports including coffee, bananas, and cocoa. The frameworks maintained overall US tariff rates of 10% on Argentina, Guatemala, and El Salvador and 15% on Ecuador, while removing duties on select goods. A senior administration official said the deals would be finalized within two weeks, though the frameworks were non-binding and required further negotiation.
Nov 21, 2025
Economic EventNotable
Economists warn tariff cuts in trade framework will not quickly lower grocery prices
Economists and consumer analysts published assessments after the November 13 trade framework announcements warning that tariff reductions on food imports would not translate quickly into lower grocery prices. Retail pricing adjusts slowly due to existing inventory cycles, supply chain contracts, and retailer margin decisions. CNBC reported that grocery price relief would likely lag by months and depend on retailers choosing to pass savings through, a step neither guaranteed nor required by the non-binding frameworks.
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