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February 6, 2026

US accuses China of secret nuclear tests as three-way arms race looms

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Military.com
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State Department accuses Beijing of 2020 nuclear test as New START treaty expires

The New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, expired on February 5, 2026. It had limited both countries to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads each since 2010.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe China conducted a secret nuclear test at its Lop Nur test site on June 22, 2020, using "decoupling" techniques to hide seismic signals from the blast.

The U.S. has 5,177 warheads, Russia has 5,459, and China has at least 600. China is building 100 new warheads per year and could possess 1,500 warheads by 2035 - one-third of U.S. and Russian arsenals.

Without New START, there are no binding limits on U.S. or Russian nuclear expansion, and no treaty constrains China's nuclear buildup. This creates the first three-way nuclear arms competition in history.

China signed but never ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, while the U.S. signed but has not ratified it either. Russia has ratified the treaty.

The U.S. cited evidence including year-round activity at China's Lop Nur test site, explosive containment chambers, and extensive excavation as proof of secret testing.

Foreign Policy

People, bills, and sources

Under Secretary Christopher DiNanno

U.S. State Department Arms Control Official

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

U.S. President

Xi Jinping

Chinese President

What you can do

1

The president negotiates nuclear treaties and can choose whether to extend or let them expire, but the Senate must ratify treaties with a two-thirds vote, giving 34 senators veto power.

2

Arms control treaties provide verification through on-site inspections, data exchanges, and satellite monitoring, creating predictability and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

3

China's rapid nuclear buildup changes the strategic calculus from a bilateral U.S.-Russia dynamic to a complex three-way competition with different technological capabilities and doctrines.

4

The absence of treaty constraints increases the risk of nuclear conflict by removing verification mechanisms and agreed limits that have prevented arms races for decades.

5

Nuclear testing bans rely on compliance and verification; when major powers violate or withdraw from these norms, it encourages proliferation and undermines global nonproliferation efforts.