February 4, 2026
Lancet study projects 9.4 million deaths from US foreign aid cuts by 2030
The State Department dismissed the peer-reviewed study as coming from a "failed journal"
🌍Foreign Policy🏥Public Health📋Public Policy
The Lancet study, published February 4, 2026, analyzed USAID programs across 133 countries and found they prevented 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021
The study projects at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030 if current aid-cut trends continue, including 2.5 million children under 5
Of USAID's more than 6,200 global programs, 5,341 (86%) were terminated in 2025; 80% of global health awards were canceled, totaling $12.7 billion in unobligated funding
The Center for Global Development estimated 500,000 to 1,000,000 lives may already have been lost in 2025 due to the aid cuts
A senior State Department official called The Lancet a 'failed journal' in response to the study's publication
UK, Germany, and Canada also slashed foreign aid in 2025, compounding the impact — G7 nations are expected to cut aid spending by 28% between 2024 and 2026
Development assistance for global health declined 21% between 2024 and 2025, driven largely by a 67% ($9 billion) drop in US funding
Congress authorized and appropriated USAID's budget under the Foreign Assistance Act; legal scholars argued the executive branch lacked authority to unilaterally dismantle the agency
🌍Foreign Policy🏥Public Health📋Public Policy
People, bills, and sources
The Lancet
Peer-reviewed medical journal founded in 1823 that published the USAID defunding impact study on February 4, 2026
Center for Global Development
Washington-based policy research organization that independently estimated 500,000–1,000,000 deaths in 2025 from USAID cuts
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State who announced the termination of 5,341 USAID programs on March 10, 2025
House Foreign Affairs Committee Democrats
Congressional minority that challenged the executive dismantlement of USAID as a violation of Article I appropriations powers
UCLA Fielding School of Public Health
Research institution whose separate analysis projected 14 million deaths by 2030 under a complete defunding scenario