Lancet study projects 9.4 million deaths from US foreign aid cuts by 2030

The Lancet Global Health study, published February 2, 2026, analyzed official development assistance programs across 93 low- and middle-income countries and found they prevented 91 million deaths between 2002 and 2021

The study projects at least 9.4 million additional deaths by 2030 if current aid-cut trends continue, including 2.5 million children under 5

Of USAID's more than 6,200 global programs, 5,341 (86%) were terminated in 2025; 80% of global health awards were canceled, totaling $12.7 billion in unobligated funding

The Center for Global Development estimated 500,000 to 1,000,000 lives may already have been lost in 2025 due to the aid cuts

A senior State Department official called The Lancet a 'failed journal' in response to the study's publication

UK, Germany, and Canada also slashed foreign aid in 2025, compounding the impact — G7 nations are expected to cut aid spending by 28% between 2024 and 2026

Development assistance for global health declined 21% between 2024 and 2025, driven largely by a 67% ($9 billion) drop in US funding

Congress authorized and appropriated USAID's budget under the Foreign Assistance Act; legal scholars argued the executive branch lacked authority to unilaterally dismantle the agency