U.S. debt is projected to hit the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling, forcing another congressional standoff

The $41.1 trillion debt ceiling set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to be breached in mid-to-late 2027 — at the current rate of borrowing, roughly two years after the limit was set in July 2025. Once the limit is reached, the Treasury Department would use extraordinary measures — temporarily suspending investments in federal employee retirement and other trust fund accounts — to delay default for several additional months. Congress would then face a deadline to either raise or suspend the ceiling or risk a first-ever sovereign default. A default would immediately halt about one-tenth of U.S. economic activity, according to Goldman Sachs, and could cost 3 million jobs and add $130,000 to the cost of an average 30-year mortgage.