Hakeem Jeffries

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Key Figures

The 2028 presidential election takes place on November 7, 2028. Donald Trump is constitutionally ineligible to run — the 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice, regardless of whether the terms are consecutive. The Republican primary field will be fully open for the first time since 2016 without an incumbent. Potential Republican candidates include JD Vance (who would be completing his first term as Vice President), Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and others. The Democratic field will depend heavily on whether the party nominates a challenger in 2028 or rallies behind an establishment figure. All 435 House seats and 33 Senate seats are also on the ballot.

The $41.1 trillion debt ceiling set by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to be breached in mid-to-late 2027 — at the current rate of borrowing, roughly two years after the limit was set in July 2025. Once the limit is reached, the Treasury Department would use extraordinary measures — temporarily suspending investments in federal employee retirement and other trust fund accounts — to delay default for several additional months. Congress would then face a deadline to either raise or suspend the ceiling or risk a first-ever sovereign default. A default would immediately halt about one-tenth of U.S. economic activity, according to Goldman Sachs, and could cost 3 million jobs and add $130,000 to the cost of an average 30-year mortgage.

Members of the 120th Congress take the oath of office on January 3, 2027, following the November 3, 2026, midterm elections. The House will elect its Speaker in a vote of all members-elect before swearing in the new Congress. Control of both chambers will be determined by the November results. If Democrats win the House, Hakeem Jeffries would become Speaker. If Republicans retain the majority, Mike Johnson or another Republican would continue as Speaker. New Senate members from the 35 contested seats also begin their six-year terms on this date.

Voters elect all 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 U.S. Senate seats (33 regular cycle plus special elections in Florida and Ohio), and governors in 36 states and three territories. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to win the majority; Republicans can lose no more than two. In the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority. Special Senate elections fill the unexpired terms of Marco Rubio (R-FL, resigned to become Secretary of State) and JD Vance (R-OH, resigned to become Vice President). Thirty-nine gubernatorial elections are on the ballot, with 15 incumbents term-limited — including in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and California. The Cook Political Report rated 17 House races as toss-ups as of April 2026, 14 of them held by Republicans.

Republicans enter the 2026 midterms with a 220-215 House majority. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win the majority; Republicans can lose no more than two. Cook Political Report rated 17 seats as toss-ups as of April 2026, with 14 held by Republicans. Mid-decade redistricting in Texas, California, Missouri, and North Carolina reshuffles the competitive map. Historically, the president''s party loses an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections.