National Intelligence Council Issues Assessment Finding Maduro Does Not Direct Tren de Aragua

The National Intelligence Council circulated a community-wide assessment on April 7, 2025 concluding that the Maduro regime "probably does not have a policy of cooperating with Tren de Aragua and is not directing Tren de Aragua movement to and operations in the United States." Six of the seven intelligence agencies that reviewed the question agreed with the finding. The FBI dissented, concluding that Venezuelan government elements were using the gang to destabilize foreign countries. The assessment used standard IC tradecraft — "probably" indicates roughly 55–80 percent confidence. The finding directly undermined the factual predicate the Trump administration had used to invoke the 1798 Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelan migrants in March 2025. Intelligence officials noted the assessment followed standard analytic procedures and was not linked to any documented political agenda.