Energy Markets

Secretary of Energy

President

Supreme Leader of Iran killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026 — his death was the direct trigger for the IRGC's enforcement action

Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, who warned the closure would cause oil prices to "gap violently upward on fear alone" and push fragile economies toward recession

Senior Fellow and James R. Schlesinger Chair in Energy and Geopolitics, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

IRGC Navy Major General who announced on March 1, 2026 that the Strait of Hormuz was closed to all vessels

Former Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Obama and Trump first-term administrations)

Commander-in-Chief, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

Climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics who calculated that $100-per-barrel oil would add 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation

Analyst at Rapidan Energy Group who assessed the strait as "the main risk to markets" and said further price moves depended entirely on military action in the hours ahead

Iranian paramilitary naval force that broadcast the "no ship is allowed to pass" radio warnings and carried out physical attacks on at least two commercial vessels near the strait

Chair, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

U.S. President who announced the Carter Doctrine on January 23, 1980, committing the United States to defend Persian Gulf access by military force — the policy framework still being applied in 2026

U.S. Senator (R-ND), Member, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who said in 2012 Iran had capabilities to block the strait "for a period of time" but that the U.S. had invested in defeating that threat — an assessment that framed two decades of U.S. naval posture

U.S. Senator (D-NM), Ranking Member, Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee

Former IRGC commander and Secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council who issued contradictory public messaging on March 1, saying tanker passage was open "until further notice" while Jabari's warnings remained in effect

Senior Crude Oil Analyst, Kpler

Prime Minister of India

President, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Director of Energy Futures, Mizuho Securities USA

U.S. Representative (R-OK), Chair, House Appropriations Committee

President of Russia

U.S. Representative (R-IA), running for reelection in a Cook Political Report toss-up district

Carter's National Security Adviser who wrote the Carter Doctrine, modeling its language on the Truman Doctrine and establishing the legal basis for U.S. military intervention in the Gulf