Iran elects Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader under IRGC pressure

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drove Mojtaba Khamenei's selection in ways that broke with the constitutional process NPR. The Assembly of Experts is constitutionally responsible for selecting the supreme leader in secret, deliberate consultation. Instead, according to Reuters, citing five senior Iranian sources, the IRGC used the argument that the war required a fast decision and a candidate who would defy the United States. It made direct contact with assembly members, pressured them in person and by phone, and overcame the objections of pragmatist and reformist clergy. The result, said Middle East Institute senior fellow Alex Vatanka, is that "Mojtaba owes his position to the Revolutionary Guards, and as such he is not going to be as supreme as his father was."

Iran International first reported that the IRGC was pushing Mojtaba's candidacy. Some assembly members who resisted were given limited time to speak during the online session, discussion was cut off, and a vote was held. Multiple members described the atmosphere as "unnatural."

Mojtaba Khamenei joined the IRGC as a young man and served during the final years of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s CNBC. Those ties gave him close relationships with IRGC commanders that deepened over decades. He later studied theology in Qom and spent the years since operating almost entirely inside his father's office, managing political and security files, coordinating with IRGC commanders and intelligence units, and cultivating influence over two generations of senior officers.

He was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2019 under the first Trump administration for representing the supreme leader in an official capacity and for working with the IRGC and the Basij to advance what the Treasury called destabilizing regional ambitions. He has never held a formal elected or appointed government position. Many Iranians had not heard his voice before he was named supreme leader.

The personal losses Mojtaba Khamenei sustained on Feb. 28 shape the expectations of analysts tracking the conflict CNN. His wife, his mother, one of his sisters, and one of his sons were killed in the same strike that killed his father. He was himself injured, according to Iranian state television, which described him as a "janbaz," or wounded veteran, of the current conflict. He had made no public appearance or statement as of March 10, leading to speculation about the extent of his injuries.

Former Middle East adviser at the Department of Defense Jasmine El-Gamal told CNBC: "You can imagine that this is not someone who's going to be in any kind of conciliatory mood." The Washington Institute for Near East Policy assessed that he may decide Iran must move quickly to obtain nuclear weapons to forestall future U.S. and Israeli attacks, a position more aggressive than his father's fatwa against nuclear weapons.

The international reaction to Mojtaba Khamenei's election split sharply along the existing lines of the conflict Al Jazeera. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated him and pledged what he called "unwavering support" for Tehran. China said it opposed any targeting of the new supreme leader. Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani also offered congratulations. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said the appointment heralded a new era of dignity and strength.

Trump had publicly dismissed Mojtaba Khamenei before the election as a "lightweight" and said on March 5 that the assembly would be "wasting their time" electing him. After the announcement he told NBC News: "I think they made a big mistake. I don't know if it's going to last." He also told CBS News: "I have no message for him," and said he had someone in mind to lead Iran but did not elaborate. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar called Mojtaba a tyrant like his father and said the new leader would continue what Israel described as the Iranian regime's brutality. Sen. Lindsey Graham said the new leader was "not the change we're looking for" and predicted he would meet the same fate as his father.

The elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei completes a transition of power that analysts had long warned could accelerate Iran's hardline posture CNBC. His father had kept a degree of distance from the IRGC's most aggressive factions. Mojtaba has no such separation. His entire career was built within and alongside the Guard. The Atlantic Council described him as associated with ultraconservatives and with clerics holding fundamentalist and Mahdist views.

The dynastic character of the succession drew pointed criticism inside Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei never publicly acknowledged himself as a successor candidate, a sensitive subject given that hereditary leadership echoes the Pahlavi monarchy the Islamic Revolution was built to overthrow. One chant at the 2009 Green Movement protests was directed at him personally: "Wish you death, Mojtaba, so you would never be the next leader." In that sense, his elevation under IRGC pressure, while the country was at war, followed a path his father had apparently not wanted and that reformists in the assembly could not prevent NPR.