February 20

BEA Q4 2025 GDP advance estimate shows 1.4% growth and shutdown dragged 1 point

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate on February 20, 2026, showing real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q4 2025, with BEA attributing approximately 1.0 percentage point of the slowdown to the federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 through November 12, 2025. Without the shutdown's effect on federal employee compensation and government spending, growth would have approached 2.4%. The estimate was later revised down further to 0.7% in the second estimate, reflecting deeper effects from trade disruptions.

EPA rolls back mercury emission standards and ends Good Neighbor interstate pollution rule

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced on February 20, 2026, a sweeping package of 31 deregulatory actions described as the largest single-day deregulatory event in U.S. history, including repeal of the 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards amendments and termination of the Good Neighbor Plan governing interstate air pollution. The MATS repeal allowed coal-fired power plants to emit more than twice the previous mercury limit and removed mandatory particulate matter continuous emissions monitoring. The Good Neighbor Plan's end released downwind states from enforceable emissions reduction requirements.

FAA faces budget fight with air traffic controllers 3,500 below safety targets

The FAA entered a February 2026 congressional budget fight with approximately 10,800 certified air traffic controllers on duty against an agency target of 13,800, a shortfall that persisted since Reagan's 1981 PATCO strike. The shortage gained urgency after a January 2025 Army Black Hawk and American Airlines jet collision at Reagan National killed 67 people, where investigators found one controller managed two positions. Congress had secured $12.5 billion for a new ATC system in Trump's reconciliation bill.

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Merkley and Hawley introduce bipartisan bill to tax hedge funds out of housing market

Senators Jeff Merkley and Josh Hawley introduced bipartisan legislation in February 2026 combining a ban on large institutional investors buying single-family homes with a $5,000 annual per-home penalty on hedge funds that fail to divest existing portfolios over ten years. The legislation also imposed a 15 percent sale-price tax on hedge funds buying additional homes. The bills targeted institutional investors who had purchased over 500,000 single-family homes since 2012, raising rents and purchase prices.

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Trump FEMA Review Council recommends closing chapter on agency in current form

The Trump-appointed FEMA Review Council released draft recommendations in December 2025 proposing cuts of 15 percent to permanent staff, 41 percent to disaster response staff, and 85 percent to surge workforce. DHS had already begun slashing disaster response staff in January 2026. The final report approved at a White House meeting in May 2026 stopped short of specific workforce mandates but called for closing the chapter on FEMA in its current form and shifting disaster response responsibility to states.

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20 states now have comprehensive data privacy laws as Congress fails to act

By February 2026, 20 states had enacted comprehensive consumer data privacy laws including California, Colorado, Connecticut, Virginia, and newly added Indiana, Kentucky, and Rhode Island, creating a patchwork of conflicting standards. Congress repeatedly failed to pass the American Privacy Rights Act, which would have established a single federal standard. The state-by-state approach left consumers in 30 states without comprehensive protections and created compliance costs hardest on small businesses.

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Smith questions why ICE should be banned from polling places

U.S. Rep. Jason Smith questions why ICE should be banned from polling places in a CNBC interview, echoing Steve Bannon's rhetoric without going as far as calling for a specific action. This amplifies the narrative around immigration enforcement at voting locations.

Immigrant rights groups fight to keep noncitizens in census count

Immigrant rights groups filed motions in February 2026 to dismiss a Republican-led lawsuit that would exclude noncitizens from the 2030 census apportionment count. The case turned on the 14th Amendment's instruction to count "the whole number of persons in each State." Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway filed the underlying suit, joined by four other GOP state attorneys general in Louisiana federal court. A ruling for the plaintiffs could strip as many as 13 congressional seats from high-immigration states.

Supreme Court allows California Prop 50 redistricting map to stand

The U.S. Supreme Court on February 5, 2026 denied an emergency injunction request from California Republicans and the Trump DOJ seeking to block a new congressional map drawn under Proposition 50. The justices issued no explanation and recorded no dissents. The map, which shifted five seats toward Democrats, was drawn after voters approved Prop 50 allowing the state legislature to override the California Citizens Redistricting Commission's lines. The DOJ had sued Governor Gavin Newsom alleging an illegal racial gerrymander under the Voting Rights Act.

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IRS stops enforcing Johnson Amendment, allowing church political endorsements

The IRS under the Trump administration effectively stopped enforcing the Johnson Amendment by July 2025, entering a consent agreement allowing specific churches to endorse political candidates without losing tax-exempt status. The Johnson Amendment was enacted in 1954 by then-Sen. Lyndon Johnson to bar 501(c)(3) nonprofits from campaigning for political candidates. Trump had issued an executive order in 2017 directing lenient enforcement. The Treasury Department announced in April 2026 it would issue formal guidance permitting religious organizations to make candidate endorsements.

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States debate replacing NIH funding as federal research system contracts

As the Trump administration's NIH cuts reduced federal grant awards to roughly 30% of normal volume in 2026, state legislatures began debating proposals to replace the lost research funding. California lawmakers advanced Senate Bill 607, a $23 billion bond measure for universities, researchers, and healthcare organizations to appear on the November 2026 ballot. New York faced $2.8 billion in terminated NIH grants and an advocacy group launched a $6 billion state research fund proposal. Massachusetts, the most affected state, lost more than $1.3 billion in terminated NIH grants.

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One Big Beautiful Bill shifts $840B in Medicaid costs to states

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in 2025, imposed the largest Medicaid restructuring since the program's creation in 1965. CBO estimated the law would reduce federal Medicaid outlays by $840 billion over ten years, with work requirements projected to cause 4.8 million people to lose coverage by 2034. The law restricted states from using provider taxes and intergovernmental transfer tools to fund their Medicaid share, effectively shifting hundreds of billions in costs to state budgets with no offsetting revenue.

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One Big Beautiful Bill cuts SNAP by $186B, largest reduction in program history

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted the largest cuts to SNAP since its creation in 1964, reducing federal SNAP outlays by $186.7 billion through 2034. New work requirements extended to adults aged 55-64, parents of children older than 14, veterans, former foster youth, and homeless individuals — all previously exempt — requiring 80 hours monthly of work or training. The law also tightened waiver criteria for high-unemployment areas, making it harder for struggling local economies to qualify for work requirement relief.

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Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs in Learning Resources v. Trump

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion, joined by Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Jackson. The ruling invalidated the sweeping global tariff regime Trump had imposed under IEEPA and required the administration to seek a different statutory basis for any continuation of tariff policy.

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HUD proposes evicting mixed-status families from subsidized housing

HUD published a proposed rule in the Federal Register on February 20, 2026, that would end prorated housing assistance for mixed-immigration-status families in federally subsidized housing. Under current law, families with ineligible members receive partial assistance proportional to eligible household members; the proposed rule would terminate all assistance if any member cannot prove lawful immigration status, and would require landlords to report ineligible members to DHS. An estimated 100,000 people, including 37,000 children, could face eviction.

Farm bill extended to September 2026 as Thompson releases new draft

The farm bill was extended through September 30, 2026 after Congress failed to pass a new bill by its 2025 deadline. House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn "GT" Thompson released H.R. 7567, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, mirroring his failed 2024 draft. The committee advanced it 34-17 in March 2026. Democrats attempted amendments to restore SNAP cuts made by the One Big Beautiful Bill but none passed. The September 2026 deadline creates pressure to resolve a yearslong standoff over farm spending, conservation, and nutrition provisions.

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Trump threatens funding cuts to sanctuary cities and their states

President Trump declared on February 1, 2026, that he would cut federal funding not only to sanctuary cities but also to any state that harbored a local government resisting federal immigration enforcement — an expansion beyond previous threats. Multiple states reaffirmed sanctuary policies, and California Attorney General Rob Bonta argued the threat was already adjudicated as unconstitutional. By mid-February, Senate Republicans introduced the Sanctuary City Elimination Act to codify the defunding threat through legislation.

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Trump administration eliminates CISA election security program and cuts grants 40%

The Trump administration eliminated CISA's election security program in early 2025, ending support for the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center (EI-ISAC) and placing election security staff on administrative leave. Federal election security grants to states were cut by approximately 40%. CISA stated the EI-ISAC closure would save $10 million annually. The program had been created in 2018 after Russia's 2016 election interference; CISA Director Chris Krebs declared the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" before Trump fired him.

Alaska voters to decide ranked-choice voting repeal for second time

Alaska certified a ballot initiative for the November 3, 2026 election that would repeal the state's top-four ranked-choice voting system. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom confirmed 42,837 verified signatures across 40 House districts exceeded the 34,098 threshold. The repeal effort follows a 2024 initiative that failed by the narrowest margin in Alaska history — 49.9% to 50.1%. RCV was first adopted in 2020 via Ballot Measure 2 and has since been used to elect Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican who would have lost in a traditional closed primary.

Analysts compare Trump FEMA cuts to Coolidge's 1927 Great Flood refusal

Commentators and historians drew sustained comparisons in February 2026 between President Trump's DOGE-driven cuts to FEMA and President Calvin Coolidge's refusal to commit federal resources to the 1927 Great Mississippi River Flood, the worst natural disaster in American history at the time. DOGE had cut roughly 20 percent of FEMA's staff by early 2026, with more than 1,800 employees accepting deferred resignation or early retirement offers. Like Coolidge, who insisted states absorb the cost of rebuilding, Trump had repeatedly signaled his intent to phase out FEMA and shift disaster response entirely to states after the 2025 hurricane season.

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Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, affirming the Federal Circuit's August 2025 en banc ruling that IEEPA tariffs were "unbounded in scope, amount, and duration." Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion; Justices Thomas, Kavanaugh, and Alito dissented. The ruling voided approximately $166 billion in IEEPA duties collected from more than 330,000 importers across 53 million shipments since April 2025.

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