Trump claims Iran could strike US but intelligence assessment says 2035

The Defense Intelligence Agency published an unclassified threat assessment in May 2025 concluding that Iran could develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 — and only if it chose to pursue that capability. That report had not changed by the time Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, 2026.

Trump first used his State of the Union address on Feb. 24, 2026 to tell Congress that Iran was working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States. It was the first time any US official had publicly framed an Iranian ICBM as imminent rather than a distant possibility.

Three sources with access to US intelligence assessments told Reuters on Feb. 26, 2026, that they were unaware of any assessment concluding Iran was close to developing a US-range missile. One source said even with Chinese or North Korean help, Iran would need at least eight years.

Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy leading nuclear negotiations with Iran, told Fox News on Feb. 21 that Iran was probably a week away from having industrial-grade bombmaking material. Witkoff made that claim despite the Trump administration having repeatedly said earlier strikes obliterated Iran's nuclear program.

Secretary of State MRMarco Rubio used softer language than Trump, telling reporters Iran was on a pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that could reach the continental US. When pressed on the DIA report, Rubio said he wouldn't comment on intelligence assessments.

GSGary Samore, a Brandeis University professor who worked on nonproliferation in both the Clinton and Obama administrations, told PBS that Iran's missile range tops out around 2,000 kilometers. Washington 🏛️DC is approximately 10,000 kilometers from Tehran.

Intelligence Community Director Tulsi Gabbard told lawmakers in March testimony that the intelligence community continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.

The pattern echoes what happened before the Iraq War. In 2002, the Bush administration told the public that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. Post-war investigations found those claims were not supported by intelligence, and the war cost more than 4,400 American lives and $2 trillion.